Archive for June, 2008

Bullish Hopes Sputtering

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

CALGARY REAL ESTATE BUBBLE BLOG Chicken soup won't help. Not doom and gloom but rather reality.Calgary inventory at all time record highs (7127 SFH + 3373 Condo), sales/new list ratio in the tank, sales down yoy 30%-50%, median price down yoy, average price down yoy, days on market up yoy.As of ...

Bold Predictions

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

CALGARY REAL ESTATE BUBBLE BLOG We're almost approaching the midway point of 2008. With the spring rush come and gone, will the following bold predictions hold true till the end of the year?Here is a compilation of predictions for the Calgary real estate market made at the beginning of this ...

False Sense Of Affordability

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

CALGARY REAL ESTATE BUBBLE BLOG This might be old elementary news, but over the last couple of years during the inflation of the Calgary real estate bubble many home buyers were "tricked" (yes, I dare say it) into affordability.A conventional and financially rational mortgage would follow a 25 year amortization period. ...

Offending Economists Around The World

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

CALGARY REAL ESTATE BUBBLE BLOG The preceding graphic was the housing market in the US where prices eventually crashed. Early symptoms included a decrease in sales and high inventory levels.Notice the very "shocking" similarities to the trend of the Calgary real estate market. In Calgary, home sales are plummeting 30%-40% YOY. ...

More Negative Equity On The Horizon

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

CALGARY REAL ESTATE BUBBLE BLOG The much anticipated "spring rush" has been a complete disaster in Calgary's real estate market. This is well documented in the MSM these days. It was during this period that sellers were hoping to unload their anvils of debt to unsuspecting greater fools. The hope ...

City Vacancy Rates Jump to 4%

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

CALGARY REAL ESTATE BUBBLE BLOG The once white-hot Calgary real estate market boasted a vacancy rate of 0.5% back in 2006. According to this article, alot has changed in the past 2 years. Inventory has slowly built up to uncontrollable levels and property sales have dissipated. This has resulted in rising ...

Back to Fundamentals

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Alberta Bubble I've been silently watching the "blog drama" that has been going on for the last few days. I really have nothing to say on it, except that everyone should be polite and when not in agreement, respectfully disagreeable.Also, there were some false 'spam flags' on this blog causing it ...

Okay, the market kind of sucks, but how about some spin!

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Alberta Bubble If you enjoy the headlines at the realtor sites, you'll probably not like the one I've used.But I guess when your bread and butter depends on making an earnings by selling homes, you've got to master the art of seeing the positive in the sea of negative news.So what ...

Is housing influenza infecting Calgary?

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Alberta Bubble No, no and No, as per this Calgary Herald article. Of course, MSM is losing its relevance with every passing day and such senseless rehashing of REIC perspective will only hasten their demise.“I don't see a lot of price decline on a year-over-year basis in Calgary. I think we're ...

Fantastic Hopes

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Alberta Bubble Spring is here, at least in the real estate context. But the spring hasn’t quite sprung sales wise. Inventory continues to pile up and the pace of new construction is still frantic. The bulls claim that everything is perfectly fine except for a little ‘inventory problem.’ If only we ...

Weekend Open Thread

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Alberta Bubble It isn't Friday yet but we are crazy busy getting ready for our move. I've been meaning to do some posts but didn't have the time. Here's a compressed version of some items of interest that would normally require a full individual post of their own. - Very early ...

Inflation or Deflation

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Alberta Bubble The steep fall in commodity prices in last few days, especially for gold and oil was not entirely expected. At least by the inflationists. Is it possible that this is the beginning of the unwinding of the ‘great commodity bubble?’ The simple scenario could play out this way- ...

Bitter Renters etc

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Alberta Bubble I was traveling all over North America during the last couple of weeks. Too much stuff going on and too many observations. I will try to post some of these in the coming weeks. But for now, the new ‘blog on the block’ caught my attention. The vehement bitterness ...

Intuit moving its head office

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Alberta Bubble First it was Dell, then TD and now it is Intuit. The crown jewel of software development in Edmonton- Intuit Canada-is shifting its head office to Toronto. No prizes for guessing the reason-it’s too hard to find talent here and too hard to sell Edmonton to ...

Wow! Prices are rising and it’s time to buy again…

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Alberta Bubble ...if we go by the conclusions of the usual suspects. Btw, Bob you are doing a great job in providing the numbers and it's all much appreciated, even though we may not agree with your conclusions!Bob writes a list of reasons why the prices are going up- Here's a ...

Where do we go from here?

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Alberta Bubble Last year housing prices kept on marching upwards despite rising inventory. The trend continued until the middle of summer when prices stopped climbing- the basic supply and demand variables starting to take their toll. Are we seeing a repetition of this pattern? Perhaps we are. Despite sharply ...

Weekend Open Thread

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Alberta Bubble Please post links, comments and other relevant thoughts. Some contributions from my side:The blog is almost one year old now. Thanks for your support and valuable comments. Hopefully we have saved at least a few people from seeking advice from the new 'Aunt Abby' about 'approaches to deal ...

Guest Post- Why I am bullish on Alberta real estate!

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Alberta Bubble As mentioned in my last post, any bull or bear who is interested in making a guest post to this blog is more than welcome. Of course, your identity will be kept anonymous if you wish to do so. This post was contributed by a poster who particpates on ...

January Numbers and other thoughts

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Alberta Bubble We are experiencing the best of the times in this province. Looking around, there are signs of prosperity. Everybody is happily employed or has the best shot they ever had at getting some jobs. Some people have high paying jobs. Lending is still pretty lax and people are still ...

On Realtors

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Alberta Bubble Realtors are commissioned sales people who make their living by selling their services and ‘advice’ to home buyers and sellers. The higher the price of the goods they sell and the higher the volume, the higher their commission. Is there anything complicated in this that people do not understand? ...